Supercell Drops Golf Ball Size Hail 4/29/14

4/29/14 – This was a day that I had been watching on the computer models for days. Mainly the NAM. The forecast model runs showed a scenario of a warm front moving through lower Michigan with an associated low pressure. The triple point was fairly close by, so I knew the potential would be there. Most often times when we get a good warm front setup in Michigan, a couple of more dominant cells will fire off and become long track. That is exactly what happened. Earlier in the day there were a few scattered thunderstorms. One went severe warned on the Lake Michigan shoreline, and eventually more storms began to fill in a little better across the rest of the area. One storm went severe warned and had a classic “flying eagle” look on radar, but as it outran the shear and instability, it died. Below are a couple of images of that cell. I chased after it, but knew it would end up dying so I left it … Read More…

Illinois Supercell 4/28/14

4/28/14 – Earlier in the week, I had been asked by my friend Michael if I wanted to pool gas money for a storm chase in Illinois on 4/28/14. You may remember the last time I chased with Michael, we scored big on 5/18/13 and also 5/19/13. After looking at model data, and tossing the idea around, pulling some strings with a few other obligations I had, I decided late the night of the 27th, that I would be on board and ready to roll in the morning on 4/28. I only got about 3-4 hours of broken sleep, but isn’t that how it’s supposed to be? You’d be surprised at how little a storm chaser actually sleeps. After I drove down to the car pool lot, Michael picked me up, then we went and picked up our friend Tony, and Michael’s brother Shawn, and hit the road for Illinois. Initially we were trying to decide between two targets. I was thinking of targeting more up around Peoria, IL, Michael … Read More…

Severe Weather: Supercell, Hail Accumulation, Storm Damage

4/12/14 – Today was a day that had looked halfway decent on the computer models in regards to chances for storms for a few days prior to the event. As the time drew nearer, I began having some higher hopes that we’d see some pretty good storms around here. The WRF-NMM was being the most bullish, showing strong thunderstorms training across lower Michigan. As it would turn out, the WRF-NMM would come to be correct. Sometimes it’s that one, lone computer model that nails a forecast, while all of the others are out to lunch. Slowly but surely, the atmospheric parameters came together to create some great severe weather potential. The SPC had issued a 5% risk for hail and wind. 0% for tornadoes despite the somewhat favorable wind shear values which were conductive to a few rotating updrafts. One of which I was on. There are 3 sets of footage, so be sure to keep scrolling after viewing the first batch of media. Storm #1: The Supercell The first … Read More…